Gold could drop to $3,100, but even that would still be a correction after a 65% rise in 2025. This is according to Nikolai Dudchenko, analyst at Finam Financial Group, one of Russia’s largest brokerage and investment firms.
Nikolai Dudchenko shared this view in a conversation with BeInCrypto editor-in-chief Vladimir Arkhireysky.
Why Gold Prices Are Falling
The fundamental picture suggests that the main reason is likely concerns over the trajectory of the US Federal Reserve’s key interest rate.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, market participants may fear that the Fed will be unable to cut rates, and that is a negative factor for prices.
In addition, judging by the nature of the price decline, experts believe the cause may be the liquidation of positions by a major market player.
This explanation also looks logical. In that case, a near-term bounce upward could be expected.
How Long Could the Decline Last and What Are the Target Levels
In a pessimistic scenario, a break below $4,200 would send prices down to around $4,000. Further movement toward $3,600 is possible, and in the most negative scenario, to $3,100.
All of this can still be interpreted as a correction, given that gold prices rose by almost 65% in 2025 alone.
What Should Investors Do
Act according to the situation and avoid trying to catch a falling knife. For those without open positions, the optimal strategy for now appears to be staying out of the market and waiting for a price reversal.
Positions can be built once gold turns around and resumes its move back toward $5,000. The probability of that scenario remains high.
Yes, in that case, positions may be opened at higher prices than today, but that will provide greater protection against a further bearish trend.
For those who already hold positions, it is advisable to keep them for now. However, if the decline continues, it would be wiser to reduce exposure in order to minimize risks and free up capital to re-enter at lower levels.
Silver: Reasons for the Decline and Possible Depth
The reasons behind the fall in silver prices are identical to those for gold. The key factor here is the question of the Fed’s interest rate. For now, the important support level is seen at $62–64 per ounce.
Bears are currently attempting to push through it, but the situation is still unclear. If a breakout occurs, the next support level may be found at $54.5–55.
