Crypto prices declined Tuesday as traders cut exposure ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of a hold at 3.50% to 3.75% on April 29, leaving Powell’s press conference as the primary focus for risk assets.
Crypto markets pull back as derisking takes hold
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to levels below $76,000, while the broader market capitalization slid 1.8% to $2.62 trillion, representing losses nearing $40 billion in the last 24 hours.
The pullback fits a pattern where Bitcoin and altcoins drift lower in the 24 hours before each Fed decision. Ether (ETH) lost almost 2%, XRP fell 2.2%, and BNB slipped 0.7%, per CoinGecko data.
The retreat tracks reduced positioning in leveraged perpetuals and an uptick in exchange inflows, both common signs of risk reduction before macro events.
“Nearly 10K BTC hit exchanges in a single day while whale inflows made up over 70% of deposits. Tbh thats not random activity thats size moving with intent,” one analyst observed.
Headline inflation near 3.3% to 3.5%, driven by oil pressure from the Iran and Middle East conflict, has weakened the case for near-term cuts and reinforced the hawkish-hold expectation in CME Group’s data.
“Feels like we are doing some derisking ahead of tomorrow. The real move BTC wants to make will happen later this week,” noted one user.
Final Powell Meeting Shifts Focus to Tone
This is widely viewed as Powell’s last appearance as Fed Chair before Kevin Warsh takes over in mid-May. CME data extends the hold forward, with a 100% probability of no change in tomorrow’s FOMC interest rate decision.
“Focus shifts to the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Rates likely unchanged, so eyes will shifts to Powell’s messaging. With inflation pressures tied to energy and global tensions still unresolved, there is a more complex trade-off between price stability and growth,” commented Federico, an executive at Phemex.
Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year near 4.33% to 4.36%, while the dollar held firm on safe-haven flows. Volatility is expected to spike during Powell’s afternoon press conference.
What the next 24 hours could reveal is whether Powell signals openness to later cuts or doubles down on inflation vigilance, a tone that has historically shaped the following month of crypto positioning.
