CNBC’s Jim Cramer compared stock sector performance across the last three Federal Reserve rate-hike cycles, highlighting how the winners have shifted over time.
The comparison comes after the Fed raised rates in September 2026 for the first time since 2023, citing persistent inflation, a resilient labor market, and oil prices pushed higher by the Middle East conflict.
How Sectors Performed After the First Hike
Cramer, host of Mad Money, examined three stretches within the Fed’s December 2015 to December 2018 tightening cycle. In the three months after that first hike, defensive sectors led the market.
Utilities, consumer staples, and real estate ranked among the strongest performers, Cramer said. Communication services technically topped the group, though Cramer called that figure misleading.
The sector did not exist under that name until late 2018, so the result actually reflects its predecessor, telecommunications, which investors treated as a safety trade at the time.
The Cycle’s Middle and Final Stretch
Looking at the roughly one year between the Fed’s first and second hikes, the picture flipped. Energy topped the list, and materials also performed well, while healthcare, real estate, and staples ranked among the worst performers.
Financials and industrials were also among the best performers in that stretch, Cramer said, since inflation stayed tame and recession fears were minimal at the time.
Over the full three-year period, information technology became the dominant sector. Consumer discretionary and financials also outperformed, echoing a similar cyclicals and financials rally strategists are floating today, while communication services, staples, energy, and materials slid toward the bottom as the Fed grew more aggressive.
“Of course, every tightening cycle is different.”
Cramer, CNBC’s Mad Money
Cramer said the current cycle carries a twist the 2015 to 2018 period did not have. War-driven oil prices, rather than broad economic demand, are adding pressure behind the Fed’s latest rate hike.
He added that further tightening could stall if oil slides back toward $80 a barrel, easing that pressure.
Whether defensive sectors repeat their early lead from a decade ago may depend on how quickly that geopolitical shock fades.
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