Coinbase Global Head of Investment Research David Duong said the US-Iran ceasefire provided markets with a relief valve, not a full reset, as Bitcoin price tops $73,000.
The two-week truce sent oil back into the low $90s and triggered a broad risk rally. However, Duong argued that underlying constraints from the war have not disappeared.
Why the Ceasefire Rally May Not Last
BTC was trading for $73,085 as of this writing, up by over 3% in the last 24 hours amid risk-on sentiment following the temporary US-Iran ceasefire.
Yet core disputes between the US and Iran remain unresolved. Shipping firms still want security assurances. The Strait of Hormuz may reopen only partially at first.
Meanwhile, the CPI report released Friday showed gasoline prices rose 21.2% in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed this was the largest monthly increase since it began tracking the data in 1967.
Headline CPI climbed to 3.3% year over year, up from 2.4% in February.
Labor Data Adds Pressure on the Fed
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, nearly triple the 65,000 consensus. On the surface, that supports the Federal Reserve keeping rates elevated.
However, Duong noted labor force participation stayed low at 61.9%. Wage growth slowed to 3.5% year over year. Prior payroll prints have also been consistently revised downward.
This leaves the Fed in an uncomfortable middle ground, according to Duong. Growth is softer than headline numbers suggest, but not weak enough to justify imminent rate cuts while war-driven inflation risks persist.
Duong identified $84 as the key oil level to watch. A sustained break below that threshold would signal fading inflation pressure and raise the odds of a quicker resolution.
If oil reclaims and holds above $100, markets will likely begin pricing a longer conflict and renewed pressure on risk assets, including BTC.
Friday’s peace talks between the U.S. and Iran could determine whether this relief rally extends or reverses.
