A new Citibank report has made the case for a $318,000 Bitcoin price by the end of 2021. However, in 2013, its author also claimed gold was heading to $3,500 in “a couple of years.”
Tom Fitzpatrick, a managing director at Citibank, based his $318,000 Bitcoin projection on an analysis of previous market tops and bottoms compared to gold’s performance in the early 1970s. He used similar rationale in 2013 to predict bullish targets for both gold and silver that have yet to come to fruition.
Citibank MD Bullish on Bitcoin
In a report intended for Citibank’s institutional clients, Tom Fitzpatrick claimed that Bitcoin could be already in another bull market that will take the price to around $318,000.
The report was leaked via Twitter user Alex (@classicmacro):
Citibank bitcoin technical analysis.
Target: Moon. pic.twitter.com/prB1YjVNhX
— Alex (@classicmacro) November 13, 2020
Fitzpatrick looked at Bitcoin’s previous market cycles to come up with the projection. Admitting the target might seem “improbable,” he noted that a move above $300,000 would represent the weakest BTC rally so far.
The Citibank executive added that the bullish arguments for Bitcoin could be “at their most persuasive ever.” He noted calls from the Fed for a new Bretton Woods, as well as the ongoing COVID-19 crisis as informing global fiscal policy.
Historically, such policies have been good for hard monetary assets. Whereas Fitzpatrick claimed gold would likely rally as well, like many others, he deemed Bitcoin to be “the new gold,” making the case that BTC was better suited as a store of value in the 21st century.
Not Fitzpatrick’s First Bold Price Call
As cryptocurrency industry researcher Larry Cermak pointed out, Fitzpatrick has made questionable price calls in the past. In 2013, the executive claimed that gold was heading for $3,500 and silver to more than $100 per ounce.
Before everyone gets hyped on this Citi report, the same guy said in 2013 that gold was gonna hit $3.5k and even used the same 1970s analogy. Not saying it won't happen but this guy looks like Citi's Pomp pic.twitter.com/F5Yh0TKT2s
— Larry Cermak (@lawmaster) November 16, 2020
Fitzpatrick gave a “couple of years” for his bullish precious metals predictions. However, seven years later, neither gold nor silver has hit his price targets.
Cermak highlighted that Fitzpatrick actually used the same rationale for his Bitcoin and precious metals calls. In both cases, Fitzpatrick drew comparisons to the gold market in the 1970s.
Similarly, as Alex (@classicmacro) highlighted, Fitzpatrick projected in July 2020 that gold prices could reach more than $8,000 an ounce within a few years. Many commented that the Citibank MD is a “big fan of moon targets.”
Alex added that there was little value in such long-term TA price projections. Although dubious over the figures, he concluded that the bank’s institutional clients “being exposed to the Bitcoin moon” was important.