Cardano’s Failed ‘Incentivized Testnet’ Breakout Leads to Lower Prices [Premium Analysis]

The Cardano Foundation is preparing for the Incentivized Testnet phase. The testnet is designed to allow ADA holders to stake their holdings for incentives. On November 29, a snapshot of users’ balance was taken — which will soon allow holders to earn rewards on the testnet.

In recent months #Cardano has been getting ready for the rollout of the #Shelley Incentivized Testnet. Bad actors have also been getting ready… What should you be cautious of? Please visit the Forum post here: https://t.co/Yjef2lAe42 #ShelleyStaySafe pic.twitter.com/fvxdSKuq13

— Cardano Community (@Cardano) December 4, 2019

The price outlook, however, has not been very positive. Cardano (ADA) has been decreasing since November 29, when it reached a high of 561 satoshis. Cryptocurrency analyst and trader @coldbloodshill suggested that ADA should be shorted at the current price since a further decrease awaits.

Oh shit and short $ADA. Not feeling as cute about this one. pic.twitter.com/XYvlMcwU61

— Cold Blooded Shiller (@ColdBloodShill) December 5, 2019

He outlined an ascending support line out of which ADA seems to have broken down.

Ascending Support Line

The Cardano price indeed broke down from an ascending support line it had been following since October 26. Besides the current level, which can act as a minor support area, there is a second support area at 480 satoshis.

Longer-Term Cardano Outlook

In the long-term, the ADA price is trading inside an ascending triangle. The ascending support line discussed in the previous section is shown with a dotted line. The current candlestick is bearish engulfing, having erased almost all of the buying power from yesterday’s long lower wick. The ascending support line of the triangle is currently at 460 satoshis.

Technical Indicators

The ADA price made a breakout attempt on November 28, which was unsuccessful. The attempt was combined with a bearish divergence in both the RSI & the MACD. However, the 50- and 100-day moving averages (MA) have made a bullish cross and the ADA price is trading above both. It is possible that ADA finds support above them and begins to reverse — instead of dropping all the way to the ascending support line. To conclude, the Cardano price failed to break out above the resistance line of its current pattern and is in the process of decreasing towards the support line. Due to the moving average support, it is possible that ADA will reverse before it reaches the support line.

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Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.