Exclusive BTC and ETH On-Chain Analysis — NUPL Values Imply Further Growth

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In Brief
  • NUPL measures whether coins are in profits or losses relative to the last time they moved.

  • The highest ever NUPL value for Bitcoin has been 0.878.

  • The highest ever NUPL value for Ethereum has been 0.96.

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In this article, BeInCrypto will analyze bitcoin and Ethereum on-chain metrics. More specifically, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) values, to try and determine if the market is overheated.



Despite increasing considerably, the current NUPL value for Bitcoin (BTC) is lower than any of those reached during the previous four market peaks. 

Similarly, the NUPL value for Ethereum (ETH) is considerably lower than that during the 2016, 2017, and 2018 peaks.



What is NUPL?

NUPL was created in order to determine the total amount of profits or losses from the circulating supply of a coin. 

In order to determine this, each coin in circulation is weighed by the difference between the current price and the price when it last moved.

Another way to calculate this would be simply to subtract realized losses from realized profits.

Realized profits measure the total value of all coins whose current price is higher than the price at their previous movement. Realized losses do the same with coins whose current price is lower than that at their previous movement. 

The difference between these two is the NUPL.

Bitcoin NUPL

As for its calculation, the numbers are simpler:

  • Values above zero indicate a position of net profit. 
  • Values below zero indicate a position of net loss.

Historically, values below -0.25 have signified “capitulation” while values above 0.75 have signified “euphoria,” indicating that a top is likely near.

Thresholds are also drawn above the 0.25 level, indicating “optimism,” and above the 0.5 level, indicating “belief.”

The highest ever NUPL values have been reached during the 2011, 2013, and 2017 market tops. 

The 2011 top had a  value of 0.878 — the highest in recorded history. 

The first 2013 top had a value of 0.824, while the second peak saw a value of 0.838. Finally, the 2017 top had a value of 0.793.

BTC NUPL Chart By Glassnode

Besides the all-time chart presented above, it’s interesting to take a look at the movement since Oct. 21, 2020. This is the first time in the current bull run that the NUPL value crossed above 0.5, indicating “Belief.”

It’s interesting to note that the highest NUPL value, 0.74, was reached on Feb. 21, 2021. This coincided with BTC reaching a then-high of $57,423.

Despite the BTC price currently being at an all-time high, the NUPL value is 0.71, indicating that there is still likely room for growth.

Therefore, if BTC were to reach a top at the current value, it would be the lowest NUPL value ever recorded during a top.

BTC NUPL Chart By Glassnode

Ethereum NUPL

Historically, the NUPL has also been proficient in determining tops for ETH.

The 2016 top had a value of 0.872, the 2017 peak had a value of 0.96, and in 2018 it reached a new high of 0.912.

ETH NUPL Chart By Glassnode

Looking at the movement since November 2020, the highest value reached was 0.734, when ETH was trading at $1,953. Despite ETH being at a new all-time high, the current NUPL value for ETH is 0.718.

Therefore, when considering that the previous tops were reached near 0.90, it seems that there is also ample room for growth in ETH.

ETH NUPL Chart By Glassnode

Conclusion

While the market is definitely overheated, it has not yet reached NUPL values that were seen in previous market tops. Therefore, it’s likely that there is still room for growth, especially in ETH.

For BeInCrypto’s latest bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.
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Valdrin is a cryptocurrency enthusiast and financial trader. After obtaining a masters degree in Financial Markets at the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics he began working at the Ministry of Economic Development in his native country of Kosovo. In 2019, he decided to focus full-time on cryptocurrencies and trading.

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