Bittensor (TAO) is trading at $308, up 5.05% on the day and 18% over 24 hours, crossing the $300 level for the first time since late November 2025. The move has brought TAO directly into a confluence of resistance that has capped every prior recovery attempt for four months.
Two derivative signals explain both the fuel behind this rally and the risk of stalling at current levels.
TAO Traders Are Unable To Decide on One Direction
Glassnode’s perpetual funding rate data shows negative readings dominated from approximately February 5 through mid-March. Several spikes reached -0.015% to -0.04%, reflecting a market where short positions significantly outnumbered longs as TAO declined from $275 to a low near $153.
Negative funding means short traders pay longs to maintain their positions — a structure that builds combustible pressure beneath the market. As the TAO price began recovering from the February low, those short positions were forced to cover, amplifying the rally well beyond what spot buying alone would produce.
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The funding rate has now flipped positive in recent days, with the March 19–24 window showing green bars of approximately +0.002% to +0.005%. That flip signals the short squeeze pressure is largely exhausted. However, this fluctuation does highlight that the TAO traders are not certain in which direction their sentiment lies. Simply attempting to capture the downside during price rises shows a slight bearish dominance towards the TAO price.
Divergence Warns That Buyers Are Losing Force
The daily CMF tells a cautionary story beneath the surface of the price rally. When TAO was trading near $261–$280 in mid-March, CMF peaked at approximately +0.20 — strong buying pressure confirmed by volume-weighted participation.
Since then, despite the price climbing from $261 to $308, CMF has declined steadily from +0.20 to the current reading of +0.06. A descending trendline on the CMF connects these lower highs directly, forming a classic bearish divergence against the ascending price trendline. TAO price is making higher highs. Money flow behind each of those highs is weaker than the last.
Any further decline toward zero would confirm that sellers are absorbing the rally. This precisely is the behavior expected when the price hits major confluence resistance.
TAO Price Faces Crucial Barrier Again
The 2-day chart shows TAO sitting at the Fibonacci 0.618 level of $306 — a level that has served as both support and resistance throughout the chart’s history. The blue EMA at $310 sits immediately above, creating a tight two-level resistance cluster between $306 and $311. Both levels are products of the same downtrend that began in November 2025 from above $469.
A sustained daily close above the $310 EMA would open the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $350 as the next significant target — roughly an 14% gain from the current price. Beyond that, the Fibonacci 1.0 level at $407 represents the pre-crash consolidation zone.
On the downside, the $275 Fibonacci 0.5 level is the first meaningful support below the current range. A rejection at $310 without CMF recovery would expose $243. Losing that level would invalidate TAO’s current recovery structure entirely. The ascending trendline from March 12 currently provides dynamic support near $270–$280. This line must hold for the bullish case to remain intact.
