Several analysts point out that Bitcoin’s previous bull cycles lasted 1,060 days. If this pattern repeats, October could mark the end of the current bull run.
These concerns arise as Bitcoin prepares to enter September, historically the weakest month of the year.
Bitcoin’s Bull Run Enters Its Third Year
While many forecasts still fall short of expectations for Bitcoin above $100,000, the rally has already entered its third year. Investors appear to focus more on the amplitude of the bull run rather than its duration.
Analyst Inmortal shared on X that every previous bull cycle lasted about 1,060 days. His chart highlighted the similarities between cycles, with boxes marking 1,060-day periods from bottom to peak.
“If this happens again, the end of the cycle will be in October,” Inmortal predicted.
Analyst Jelle added that Bitcoin might have only about 55 days left in this bull cycle. In his post, Jelle explained that this forecast aligns with Solana and Ethereum preparing to reach new price levels, as altcoins typically peak about a month after Bitcoin.
Analyst Ali provided additional technical evidence, highlighting a weekly RSI top divergence. This same signal previously predicted the 2021 Bitcoin bear market.
Recent analysis of Bitcoin notes that indicators like Spot Taker CVD and BTC’s Taker Buy/Sell Ratio suggested increasing selling pressure in late September.
The concern grows as Bitcoin enters September, which has historically delivered an average return of –3.77%, the lowest of the year, according to Coinglass data.
However, these forecasts rely solely on historical technical signals while ignoring present market sentiment and macroeconomic influences.
“Many think a BTC top will form in about two months. I think it’s possible too, but one element doesn’t fit: sentiment. Sentiment isn’t matching with a top. Where’s the euphoria? Sentiment is an important indicator. We’re not seeing the sentiment top form yet,” Colin Talks Crypto stated.
Moreover, September volatility could also be strongly influenced by the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, which may shape Bitcoin’s direction for the rest of the year.
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