Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of a relief rally this week, offering a glimmer of hope to investors after the recent market downturn.
Despite this brief uptick, analysts are warning that the upward momentum may not last long.
Will Bitcoin’s Rally Last?
According to data from BeInCrypto, Bitcoin’s price has recovered by 2.0% over the past week. The gains have more than doubled over the fortnight, with the coin appreciating by 5.0%. At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency traded at $87,381, representing a slight 0.1% dip over the past day.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also seen inflows for nine consecutive days, according to data from SoSo Value. Since last Friday, the ETFs have collectively attracted $944 million in inflows.
This sustained interest suggests growing confidence among institutional investors. Yet, analysts are unconvinced of the rally’s potential.
In its latest Cryptocurrency Compass newsletter, research firm Fairlead Strategies predicted that Bitcoin’s relief rally could persist for another one to two weeks. However, founder Katie Stockton warned that a price drop may follow.
“Intermediate-term momentum is to downside, and the weekly stochastics are not yet oversold, increasing risk that the rebound is fleeting. We expect the same for most risk assets,” she wrote.
Despite the bearish outlook, Stockton acknowledged short-term positives. Bitcoin’s near-term momentum has improved, and the price still has room to rise before hitting overbought territory. Nonetheless, she cautioned that this window may close by month’s end.
This could potentially trigger a phase of consolidation—or “digestion.” This means that Bitcoin’s upward momentum might slow down or pause for a longer period as the market adjusts and absorbs the recent gains.
Another analyst also shared a cautious outlook. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Koroush AK estimated Bitcoin’s potential price movements using a liquidation heatmap.
He noted that there’s significant selling pressure around $89,000 (major supply) and buying interest around $85,000 (demand).
“The idea of a HTF dead cat bounce is still valid if price reverts at the highs around the ≈$90K key zone,” he wrote.
For context, a “dead cat bounce” refers to a temporary recovery or brief upward movement in the price of an asset after a prolonged downtrend. This is followed by a continuation of the downtrend. However, he added that the bearish scenario would be nullified if Bitcoin manages to break past the resistance level.
Meanwhile, changing macroeconomic conditions are also a growing concern, particularly with US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements scheduled for April 2. In their recent report, K33 Research stressed that although markets are currently stable, the upcoming tariff decisions could trigger considerable volatility in the market.
“Tariffs remain the primary producer of market-moving headlines, rendering most traders risk-averse as we approach a big day of tariff announcements on April 2,” the report read.
The report further advised caution and recommended avoiding leverage due to the anticipated tariff-induced volatility.
Recently, BeInCrypto also explored how Trump’s tariff plans might impact crypto markets. High tariffs could pressure risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially mirroring the market’s reaction in February. Conversely, if tariffs are delayed or applied selectively, investor fears may ease. This, in turn, could lead to a potential recovery in crypto prices.
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