Bitcoin Price Sitting Above Stock-to-Flow Model as Halving Nears

BTC hit a three-month high a few hours ago when prices touched $9,630. The digital asset has been consolidating for almost a week now above $9,000 and the longer it does so the greater the chances of another move higher.

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow On Track

The stock-to-flow (S2F) model examines the relationship between the production of supply and the current stock available. This model has been examined a great deal by analyst ‘PlanB’ as a way of predicting prices based on halving events that affect supply and demand. With just three months left until Bitcoin’s third halving, BTC prices are now above the S2F model as observed by the analyst.

#bitcoin halving 3 months to go .. now above S2F model value pic.twitter.com/v8Hhh1ot55

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 2, 2020

Using this model, PlanB predicts a rise to around $80-$100k in the months following the halving. Previous halvings in 2012 and 2016 saw huge rallies in the years that followed. and many are expecting that 2021 could be even bigger for Bitcoin than this year.

A Golden Cross

There are other bullish signals in addition to the S2F model and yesterday’s golden cross is one of them. This long-term trend change indicator occurs when a faster moving average crosses above a slower one. This has just occurred on the daily chart for two of the most commonly observed moving averages, the 50-day, and the 200-day. The last time this occurred was in April of 2019 when BTC was priced at around $4,500. Following a golden cross signal, prices surged to a yearly high of $13,800 in June. This has also been observed by analysts using different moving averages on the weekly time frame:

Wow. Bitcoin is about to print a Weekly Golden Cross next week, after 10 months.

If Bitcoin were to do the same $4000 to $14000 rally this time its going straight to $30000.

I'm so hyped for this! pic.twitter.com/UIS0wpQIyb

— Anondran (@AnondranCrypto) February 3, 2020

BTC is currently at resistance trading at levels last seen in October of 2019 and needs to break higher this week to prevent a large pullback.

While bitcoin did not make a higher high yet with respect to October 2019, total market cap already did.
It looks a bit weak looking at the indicators though, but who cares, right? $BTC $BTCUSD #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/u2eydaZiaK

— CryptoHamster (@CryptoHamsterIO) February 3, 2020

The next resistance level is over $10,000 which is also a huge psychological barrier, and the technical indicators suggest that it’s only a matter of time before this threshold is crossed again.