Bitcoin Resilience Tested: Price Loses Key Support Band, Drop to $105,000 Likely

  • Bitcoin trades at $111,542 after a 4.7% weekly decline, with ETF outflows of $466M fueling bearish momentum and fragile sentiment.
  • Slipping below the 0.95 cost basis quantile band signals risk, with historical patterns pointing toward $105,000–$90,000 downside targets.
  • BTC must reclaim $112,500 to invalidate the bearish setup; failure risks further declines through $110,000 and $108,000 supports.
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Bitcoin is facing heightened selling pressure after days of persistent decline, fueling fears of a deeper market correction. 

The crypto king has lost ground as bearish momentum strengthens, with limited support from macroeconomic conditions further worsening sentiment.

Bitcoin Faces Correction

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are playing a critical role in the current selloff, with significant outflows marking the week. Since Monday, the funds have recorded withdrawals totaling $226 million. This is a sharp reversal from the steady inflows seen earlier this month. Such moves reflect growing caution among institutional investors.

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Wednesday brought an unexpected twist as inflows of $241 million briefly offset prior exits. Yet the sharp swings highlight uncertainty, making ETF participants an unreliable support base for Bitcoin. This volatility highlights how sentiment remains fragile, with even large players shifting positions quickly under market stress.

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Bitcoin ETF Data.
Bitcoin ETF Data. Source: Farside

Beyond ETFs, broader signals are pointing toward more downside risk for Bitcoin. The Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model shows BTC slipping under the 0.95 quantile band, an area closely watched by analysts. This range typically represents heavy profit-taking zones for long-term holders.

A sustained decline below this risk band would confirm bearish conditions. Historically, such moves have preceded steep drawdowns, putting price targets between $105,000 and $90,000 in play. With macroeconomic headwinds and cautious institutional flows, Bitcoin’s outlook leans heavily toward weakness.

Bitcoin Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model
Bitcoin Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model. Source: Glassnode

BTC Price Is Sliding

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $111,542, reflecting a 4.7% weekly decline. The crypto king remains stuck below the $112,500 resistance, unable to attract enough momentum to flip the level into support.

Furthermore, if bearish pressure persists, Bitcoin could break through $110,000 support, opening a path to $108,000. Additionally, continued selling could extend the drawdown further, pushing BTC to $105,000 in the near term.

Bitcoin Price Analysis.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Nevertheless, if investors step in to stabilize price action, Bitcoin could reclaim $112,500 as support. A successful bounce from that level would challenge the prevailing bearish narrative, potentially setting the stage for recovery and invalidating the downside outlook.


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Disclaimer

This Analysis reflects BeInCrypto's editorial interpretation of information and data available at publication and may become outdated. It is general and non-personalised, does not consider your circumstances, and is not investment research, financial, investment, legal or tax advice, an offer or a recommendation. Forecasts, targets, technical analysis and forward-looking statements are uncertain and may not materialise; past performance and indicators do not predict future results. References to assets, products or providers do not imply endorsement. Crypto-assets and financial products may result in total loss. Verify material information before acting.

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