Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $71,063, up 0.23%, inside an ascending channel on the 12-hour chart as a large whale short position faces liquidation.
A $46 million short bet opened on Hyperliquid carries a liquidation level of $71,712. If BTC reaches that level, the forced closure would inject additional buying pressure into an already recovering market. The question is whether the on-chain setup supports that move.
Bitcoin Whales Make a Return
Whales, i.e., the addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC, show a consistent pattern since July 2025: every time the whale address count increased sharply, Bitcoin price corrected meaningfully in the weeks that followed.
The first instance came in November 2025, when the count rose from approximately 1.960 to 1,986. Bitcoin subsequently fell. The second occurred in mid-January 2026, when the count again approached 2,010.
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Come March end, the same cohort is noting a rise in the address count for the first time since mid-February. The pattern has repeated with enough consistency that a further increase in whale address count would represent a clear warning signal for a third correction.
Old Bitcoins Are Moving Again
The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) reading on March 24 shows a spike of approximately 27 million, one of the highest readings since the February deleveraging period. This means BTC that have been stationary for an extended period are moving today.
High CDD can carry two interpretations. If old coins are moving to sell, it represents distribution from long-term holders into the rally — a potential headwind. If those coins are moving into custody or consolidating wallets without hitting exchanges, it is neutral to bullish.
But if a surge of old coins reaches exchanges today, it would add selling pressure on Bitcoin’s price, which might pull BTC back below $70,000.
BTC Price May Drop After Liquidation
The 12-hour chart shows BTC consolidating inside an ascending channel. The lower trendline support sits at $68,865, and the upper resistance runs near $75,851. Price is currently at $71,063, roughly midway through the channel.
That level is also where two prior distribution zones formed in February, making it a significant test.
The bearish case rests entirely on $68,865. Bitcoin is forming an ascending wedge, which projects a -16.07% measured move annotated on the chart, targeting $57,497. Two prior breakdowns from similar setups produced identical percentage declines, making that target structurally derived rather than arbitrary.
On the other hand, a short position at $72,400 creates an additional magnet in this range. As per Lookonchain, a Bitcoin Gambler opened a short position worth $46 million with 40x leverage. If price breaches $71,712, the forced liquidation could accelerate the BTC price move toward $74,000 in a short squeeze.
