Bitcoin (BTC) has flipped into a new bull market regime, according to CryptoQuant, after its Bull Score surged from 30 to 80 in a single week. The firm calls it the fastest reversal in a year.
One hurdle remains before the shift becomes official. Bitcoin must close above its 365-day moving average, which sits near $83,000 today.
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A 24% Rally Rebuilds the Bitcoin Bull Market Case
Bitcoin has climbed 24% since Monday, August 17, touching an intraday peak of $81,272 on Binance. That marks its highest level since May 15, 2026. At press time, BTC traded near $79,224, up 1.9% over 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto market data.
Two macro catalysts drove the move. The US Treasury said it will double long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9. Markets also rallied after Trump’s Bitcoin purchase hint suggested Washington may buy BTC directly.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score, a composite of 10 on-chain and market metrics, now reads its most bullish since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin traded at $124,000. Eight of the 10 inputs currently flash green.
Demand data supports the shift. Apparent spot demand is growing at its fastest monthly pace since late December. Spot and futures demand are also expanding together for the first time since early October 2025. BeInCrypto recently examined similar crypto demand signals that had yet to confirm
“Market regime has switched to Bull for Bitcoin. Basically all metrics are pointing to the initial phase of a new bull market… Bitcoin’s price still has to cross above its 365-day MA ($83K today) for the bull market to be ‘officially’ confirmed,” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, added, suggesting that the data looks constructive but incomplete.
Overheating Signals Cloud the $83,000 Confirmation Test
The same report warns that the market looks stretched in the short term. Trader unrealized profit margins spiked to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025.
Meanwhile, whales realized a record $614 million in profits on August 20. Exchange inflows for BTC, Ethereum (ETH), and XRP have also jumped, a pattern that often precedes selling pressure.
Broader risk appetite also leans bullish, with asset managers holding nearly $375 billion in long S&P 500 futures, close to record highs. Their emerging and developed market exposure also sits at or near records.
The rally follows Bitcoin’s strongest weekly close since 2024. Confirmation now depends on a decisive close above $83,000. The other question is whether rising exchange inflows deliver the correction Moreno flagged.
Bitrue