Bitcoin Analysis for 2020-01-08 [Premium Analysis]

Bitcoin Price Highlights

• The Bitcoin price has moved above its 100-day moving average (MA).
• There is resistance at $8600.
• The short-term movement has become parabolic.
• The price has reclaimed the previous breakdown level.

Parabolic Bitcoin Movement

Since the breakout from the inverse head and shoulders pattern, the Bitcoin price has continued its upward moved without a hint of retracement. It just moved above its 100-day moving average (MA) and the 0.5 Fib level. The next significant resistance area is most likely found at $8600 — a combination of the 0.618 Fib level and the descending resistance line. A breakout above this descending resistance line would indicate that the downward trend in place since June 24 has ended. In the short-term, the movement has gone entirely parabolic. We can draw a curved ascending support line that touches every higher low and is almost completely vertical. The volume has been decreasing throughout the movement and the lower time-frame RSI has generated bearish divergence.

Weekly Chart

There are several interesting characteristics when looking at the long-term logarithmic chart. The roughly $6500 bottom occurred very close to the long-term support line and right at the 0.618 Fib level of the entire upward move. The same thing transpired during the $3200 bottom on December 2018 (yellow arrow), prior to beginning the current upward movement. If the Bitcoin price breaks out from the channel, we would expect it to retrace eventually, before accelerating its rate of increase prior to halving — similar to its movement prior to the second halving (blue arrow). The non-logarithmic chart shows that the Bitcoin price has reclaimed the previous breakdown level at $7400-$7600. Whenever the price breaks down but cannot sustain its lower prices, it has major bullish implications for the future outlook. While the weekly candlestick has yet to close, making the possibility that the price creates a long upper wick and a bearish close theoretically still in play, we believe that is extremely unlikely. Furthermore, the price has moved above both the 50- and 100-week MAs, which have previously made a bullish cross. This is a sign that the bottom is in and the price is likely in a bullish market. A breakout above the descending resistance line of the channel would confirm this movement. To conclude, the Bitcoin price has continued its upward movement, targeting the resistance line of the channel at $8600 and reclaiming the previous breakdown level. The medium- and long-term outlook is bullish, while in the short-term we believe the price will soon make a top. Good luck and happy trading! For our previous analysis, click here.