Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $70,000 on March 10, ahead of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report lands Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET — with Wall Street banks forecasting a sharper monthly acceleration than markets had hoped.
The February CPI print comes at a pivotal moment. BTC has spent two months consolidating between $63,000 and $75,000 after shedding roughly 45% from its January 2026 peak above $126,000.
Why Wall Street’s Numbers Should Worry Bitcoin Bulls
As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $70,984 after rising nearly 5% in the last 24 hours.
It comes ahead of the February CPI, due Wednesday, and is among the US economic events expected to influence Bitcoin sentiment this week.
The median forecast from 16 major banks surveyed by The WSJ is 0.27% month-over-month for headline CPI. This is a sharp jump from January’s 0.17% MoM reading, per BLS data. On an annual basis, the median holds at 2.4%.
The monthly acceleration is the figure traders are watching most closely. January’s 0.17% MoM print came in soft, partly because the October 2025 government shutdown forced the BLS to impute missing survey data.
That gap between reported and underlying inflation is why even a “sideways” annual number could mask hotter real pressures.
The Banks Are Not in Agreement
The spread across bank forecasts is wide, and that alone signals genuine uncertainty. Goldman Sachs sits at the dovish extreme with a 0.18% MoM headline forecast.
Meanwhile, Citigroup (0.31%), Moody’s (0.33%), Morgan Stanley (0.33%), and Nomura (0.33%) all project headline CPI above 0.3% MoM, per the WSJ bank survey.
Market analyst TheBullishTradR flagged 0.3% MoM core CPI as the risk-off trigger for BTC. A print at or above that level (which four of the 16 surveyed banks now expect) would likely pressure BTC back below $68,000 toward $65,000.
A soft print below 0.2% MoM flips the narrative bullish, with $72,000 as the near-term target, the analyst noted on X.
The BTC/S&P 500 correlation currently sits at 0.30, tying crypto’s near-term direction directly to the macro print.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 29.5 signals markets are already on edge ahead of the release.
Fed Holds Firm, But Rate-Cut Math Is Shifting
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch data prices a 97.4% probability of no change at the March 18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with zero probability of a hike. The Fed’s current target rate sits at 350–375 basis points.
However, rate-cut expectations later in the year are directly tied to the CPI path. JPMorgan’s economists predicted in January that the Fed would hold rates flat through 2026 and raise by 25 basis points in Q3 2027.
The bank cited a labor market that could tighten by Q2 and a gradual disinflation process. Goldman Sachs and Barclays, by contrast, penciled in cuts in September and December 2026.
CoinShares noted in its 2026 outlook that a stagflation scenario (sticky inflation alongside slowing growth) represents a bear case for BTC with a floor near $70,000.
That scenario becomes more plausible if April’s unwind of the October BLS data distortions reveals shelter inflation running hotter than current prints suggest.
“Wall Street has inflation as measured by the CPI running sideways in February and holding near the lowest 12-month rates in five years* *at least until April, when the data collection/imputation distortions from the Oct govt shutdown could fully unwind,” warned economist Nick Timiraos.
Wednesday’s number will not resolve the full picture. With BLS imputations still smoothing shelter data, even a soft February headline may not reflect actual cost pressures building beneath the surface.
The April CPI report, when distortions are expected to fully unwind, may prove the more decisive macro test for BTC’s recovery trajectory.
