Binance Research Finds Game-Breaking Problems on the Augur Platform

Binance Research has just put out a new report on the blockchain-based prediction platform Augur and it is almost all bad news for the cryptocurrency. Prediction markets remain one of the best use-cases for blockchain technology since they can be trusted without a central operator. The potential for complete transparency opens the door to many possibilities. Augur is currently the most popular prediction platform currently running in the cryptocurrency space. However, according to a new report by Binance Research, the picture is not as rosy as we would like to imagine. In fact, if left unaddressed, certain problems could likely prove to be game-breaking for its entire market.

Fundamental Issues Remain Unresolved

Binance Research has outlined a few serious issues with Augur platform, including:

• Low liquidity and abysmal participation rates.
• Voting, settlements, and forming mechanisms which are far too complex.
• Usability remains undeveloped.

To make matters worse, the report mentions multiple scenarios where the Augur prediction markets led to controversial outcomes, reporting, and settlements. The issues underscore the growing tension between the ‘code is law’ mindset and more pragmatic approaches which call for semi-consistent tweaking of the underlying protocol. The end result is inconsistencies in the outcomes. The main issue with Augur is that it lacks a proper incentive structure. For example, if a predictive market creator stakes a certain amount, it does not adjust with the size of the market. This effectively means that users can create multiple ‘fake’ markets at a fixed cost which significantly lessens real market liquidity. Augur also has a steep learning curve, which forces users to utilize either an IPFS-hosted version of a web interface or the augur.casino website. The interface itself also lends users to prefer certain markets over another. This inevitably leads to certain markets receiving more exposure than others.

Design Flaws

Binance Research documents one case-study on a predictive market based on the price of Ethereum (ETH), ending on April 1, 2019. Because the contract was intentionally made to expire before the end of day UTC, it may very well be marked invalid with no pay-outs. This is what one could call a ‘design flaw attack,’ in which winning payouts are unlikely or outright impossible by design. With these game-breaking violations on the Augur platform, it is hard to imagine it has any long-term viability until these pressing concerns are resolved. Until then, play and predict at your own risk. What are your thoughts on the Augur platform? Was Binance Research being too harsh? Let us know your thoughts below.