A BBC investigation has identified a consistent pattern of spikes in trading activity across several financial markets in the hours or minutes before US President Donald Trump’s most significant market-moving statements during his second term.
Some analysts argue the activity carries the telltale signs of illegal insider trading. Meanwhile, others contend the situation is less clear-cut, suggesting certain traders have simply grown more skilled at predicting the president’s interventions.
Is Someone Trading on Trump’s Next Move Before the World Hears It?
The report presented five notable examples. On March 9, 2026, a large volume of bets on falling oil prices was reportedly placed 47 minutes before a CBS reporter’s post about Trump’s interview on X.
During the interview with CBS, Trump signaled that the US-Israel war with Iran was “very complete, pretty much.” Oil prices subsequently dropped around 25%.
On March 23, 2026, traders placed “unusually high number bets” on US oil prices 14 minutes before Trump’s Truth Social post about a resolution with Iran. One oil analyst told the BBC the activity appeared abnormal.
Ahead of Trump’s 90-day “Liberation Day” tariff pause on April 9, 2025, over $2 million was wagered on the S&P 500 rising despite seven consecutive days of losses.
“Again, a pattern of unusual trading preceded these events with an unusually high number of bets ahead of the announcement on one fund that tracks the S&P 500. The number of contracts traded jumped to over 10,000 per minute just after 18:00 BST. Earlier in the day, the number had been in the hundreds,” the report read.
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The BBC also flagged that a Polymarket account called “Burdensome-Mix,” which turned $32,500 in wagers into $436,000. The account placed bets on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro leaving office just days before US special forces seized him on January 3, 2026.
The report added that shortly after, the account changed its username and has not placed any wagers since.
Finally, the BBC, citing data from blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, noted that six Polymarket accounts were created in February 2026. All wagered on a US strike against Iran by February 28. The accounts collectively earned roughly $1.2 million after the attack.
“Five of those six users have placed no more bets since, but one of the account’s recent activity shows it has subsequently made $163,000 by correctly betting on a US-Iran ceasefire by 7 April, which was announced by Washington and Tehran on that day,” the outlet added.
BeInCrypto has reached out to the White House, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for comment.
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