US Vice President JD Vance opened direct US-Iran talks at Switzerland’s Bürgenstock resort on Sunday, even as President Donald Trump threatened fresh military strikes if Tehran fails to rein in Hezbollah.
The talks implement a 14-point memorandum that Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed on June 17. It set a 60-day ceasefire to end a war that began on February 28 and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran Talks Open Under Pressure
Vance leads the US side, with Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf heading Tehran’s team. Pakistan and Qatar are mediating in a four-way format.
The talks nearly fell apart first. Iran suspended them on Friday over Israel’s strikes in Lebanon, then agreed to meet on Sunday. Vance expects only a couple of days of negotiations.
Washington wants fast movement on Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran wants the fighting in Lebanon to stop first. It is also seeking sanctions relief, the unfreezing of assets, and an end to the US naval blockade.
The truce is fraying. Israeli strikes killed dozens in Lebanon over the weekend, and five Israeli soldiers have died since the deal. The turmoil has even split crypto traders over whether the ceasefire holds.
Bitcoin (BTC) could swing again if the war reignites, a risk analysts have already war-gamed for crypto. Trump, meanwhile, escalated on Truth Social, warning Tehran over its Lebanese proxies.
“Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Donald Trump, US president, via post.
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Why Crypto Markets are Watching Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is the reason markets care. About 20 million barrels of oil cross it daily. That is close to a fifth of global supply and more than a quarter of seaborne trade.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the waterway shut on Saturday, citing Israel’s attacks. Yet US Central Command said 55 tankers still passed through that day, carrying more than 17 million barrels.
After the signing, oil fell sharply, and equities set records. Brent crude slipped to about $78 a barrel, and US gas hit $3.99 a gallon, its lowest since March. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan expects sub-$3 gas by early 2027 if the truce holds.
For crypto, the signal runs through oil. Cheaper energy cools inflation and revives rate-cut bets, the script Bitcoin has followed all year.
Yet Bitcoin barely reacted to the deal, holding near $64,000. Last June, a similar Iran ceasefire sent it above $105,000.
The next few days of talks will test whether the ceasefire survives in Lebanon. For crypto, the bigger tell may be oil, not the nuclear file.
