SpaceX’s price targets now span a massive range. Wall Street analysts set targets from $131 to $800 as the IPO quiet period ended.
Nineteen analysts published new ratings once the quiet period lifted for 23 underwriting banks behind SpaceX’s IPO. The moves coincided with SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index on Tuesday, July 7. The median target sits at around $250, a 56% jump from Monday’s closing price.
The High End of the Range
Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale set the Street-high target at $800. He compared SpaceX to railroads and the internet as foundational infrastructure.
Citi’s John Godyn rated the stock a buy at $200. He called it a step toward a longer-term $900 target tied to Starship.
Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu and J.P. Morgan’s Doug Anmuth issued buy-equivalent ratings at $255 and $225. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas set a $300 base case. His range spans a $600 bull case and a $75 bear case.
Fourteen of the 19 targets clustered between $200 and $250. That optimism follows heavy institutional demand. BlackRock placed a $5 billion order ahead of the company’s $2 trillion debut last month.
The Low End of the Range
MoffettNathanson’s Julie Zhu set the Street-low target at $131, the sole holdout with a neutral rating that implies 18% downside. The firm called SpaceX’s $30 trillion addressable market estimate “absurd.” It also questioned Musk’s plan to deploy 100 gigawatts of orbital compute by 2029.
“There is simply no credible financial model that can support what is at the time of this writing a roughly $2 trillion valuation. Our own certainly does not.”
Zhu’s team stopped short of a sell rating. The analysts argue investors are pricing SpaceX as an option on businesses that don’t exist yet. It flagged regulatory scrutiny of SpaceX’s launch dominance as the bigger long-term risk. That risk remains years away, the firm said.
The nearly $700 gap between the highest and lowest targets leaves SpaceX’s volatile stock at a crossroads. Starship’s next test this month could sway which camp proves right.
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