SpaceX stock (SPCX) enters the Nasdaq-100 before US markets open on Tuesday. The move lands as SPCX trades roughly 29% below its recent peak.
Nasdaq confirmed on June 26 that SPCX would join, less than a month after its June 12 listing.
SPCX Stock Gives Back Its Post-IPO Gains
Space Exploration Technologies Corp went public on June 12, reaching a valuation of nearly $2 trillion. The shares opened near $150, well above the $135 IPO price.
The initial rally carried the SPCX stock to an all-time high of $225.64. However, the stock has since retreated sharply.
SPCX has fallen roughly 29% over the past few weeks. The stock closed at $160.42 on Monday, down -0.98%.
What the Inclusion Means for SPCX
Index-tracking funds must buy SPCX to match the benchmark. That demand can lift a stock, though the effect depends on its weight.
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JPMorgan estimates SpaceX will carry about a 1.3% weight, ranking near 21st, behind names like Nvidia, Walmart, Intel, and Tesla.
“But the smaller the percentage weighting within the index that any given constituent holds, the less stock anybody trying to track that index is going to have,” Mike Khouw, chief strategist at OpenInterest.PRO, told CNBC. “Make no mistake, this is still very high volatility.”
Volatility also remains a concern. JJ Kinahan, senior vice president at Cboe, urged caution over near-term swings.
“We know volatility is high. There’s a sense volatility may increase. Are you comfortable with a $20 expected move over the next 11 days?” he said.
Meanwhile, expiring lockups could work against the buying. Insider restrictions lift in tranches between 70 and 135 days after the June 12 IPO. Shares held by Elon Musk and other large backers stay locked for 366 days.
Susquehanna analyst Charles Minervino called the schedule a near-term overhang for the stock, since fresh supply may hit just as index demand builds. The next sessions will test whether index buying can offset that overhang.
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