Gold (XAU) price prediction turns bullish near $4,716 after a confirmed descending channel breakout. The move validates the prior BeInCrypto target at $4,772 and shifts attention toward $4,850 before Friday’s jobs data.
The daily and four-hour structures both lean higher. Analyst Karcebe expects closings above $4,720 to fuel a push toward $4,850 as Friday’s data raises volatility.
Gold Daily Chart Holds Higher Low Above Key Fibonacci Support
The daily XAU/USD chart shows a constructive setup after the all-time high at $5,598 printed in late January. Price corrected to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $4,376, then bounced to the 0.382 Fibonacci near $4,843.
A second corrective leg printed a higher low above the 0.5 Fibonacci at $4,609. Price is now climbing back toward the 0.382 resistance zone for a third attempt.
Daily RSI sits in neutral territory near 45, with no overbought condition limiting upside. Volatility readings have begun to expand, suggesting the market is preparing for a directional move.
A clean break of the 0.382 Fibonacci at $4,843 opens the path to the 0.236 Fibonacci at $5,131. A failure at the 0.618 Fibonacci flips the structure and exposes the 0.786 Fibonacci near $4,044.
Four-Hour Chart Hits Bullish Target
The four-hour chart confirms that the prior BeInCrypto gold analysis was correct. A descending parallel channel framed price action from April 17. It capped every rally inside its upper bound until May 1, when bulls finally broke out.
The breakout was followed by a textbook retest of the channel midline near $4,540. The blue circle on the chart marks that level. Buyers defended that zone on May 5, then pushed the price toward the bullish target at $4,772 on May 7.
However, the latest four-hour candle prints a 1.13% red rejection from the target, with price falling back to $4,692. The pullback signals near-term profit-taking before the heavy NFP catalyst.
The four-hour RSI has reached bullish territory without entering overbought territory, leaving room for further upside. Volatility expanded sharply during the breakout and is now cooling, a typical post-impulse pause.
Gold (XAU) Price Prediction Points to $4,850 Main Target
The hourly chart shared by analyst Karcebe shows gold breaking above its descending channel. The move converts prior resistance near $4,716 into support.
According to Karcebe, closings above $4,720 will trigger the next bullish wave. The first target sits near $4,785. The main target is $4,850, a level that aligns with the daily 0.382 Fibonacci.
“Gold has reached the $4730 target I expected after breaking the descending channel…Closings above $4720 will start another upward wave. The first target above is around $4785, the main target is $4850.”
Karcebe also flagged Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release as the next major catalyst for gold. Stronger jobs data could lift the dollar and push prices higher. A weak print would likely fuel another leg toward $4,850.
A loss of $4,670 would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis and return focus to the channel midline near $4,540. Until that level breaks, the path of least resistance points higher.
