Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $76,300 after a 3% daily slip. Long-term holders spent August selling into strength, and that selling has now almost stopped.
That handover left a mark. Coins leaving long-term wallets went to newer buyers, and one level now decides whether they stay in profit.
Long-Term Holders Sold Harder Than at the Cycle Top
Glassnode data shows long-term holder net position change turning sharply negative in mid-August. The wave reached roughly 260,000 BTC, the deepest level since January 2025.
The same group was previously buying Bitcoin between March and June.
During the late 2025 all-time high, around 170,000 BTC were sold by these long-term holders. So, it looks like they sold more Bitcoin in August, near the $80,000 price mark, compared to when it was $122,000.
This shows how much potential profit many long-term holders missed out on.
However, it looks like the selling has stopped dramatically toward September.
Short-Term Holders Flipped Into Profit, For a Moment
CryptoQuant data shows who absorbed those coins. Short-term holder (STH) supply in loss had dominated for nine months, peaking above $600 billion.
August reversed that. Supply-side profit jumped to roughly $260 billion, while losses collapsed toward zero.
However, the flip is already under pressure. Profit has since fallen to $168.2 billion, and losses have climbed back to $102.6 billion as BTC drifted lower.
BTC Price Prediction and the $76,500 Line
The daily chart explains why that flip is wobbling. Bitcoin cleared the descending trendline from its January high, then stalled in early September at $82,613.
That level marks the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the drop from $97,950 to $57,802. Price has since slipped under the 0.5 retracement at $77,876.
Support now sits at $76,500. Below it, the $73,000 to $75,000 band lines up with the 0.382 retracement.
Volume has contracted since late August without a heavy selling day. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled from about 78 to 53.
A hold above $76,500 and a reclaim of $81,000 would keep the profit flip intact. Conversely, a slide toward $73,000 would put most August buyers underwater, as earlier Bitcoin bottom studies warned.
The Four-Year Clock Says a Bottom Is Due
Analyst Root plots Bitcoin on a spiral where angle marks time and radius marks price. One turn covers four years.
Halvings, all-time highs and cycle bottoms each cluster in the same zones. The current arm sits where the 2015, 2018 and 2022 lows formed.
That framing rests entirely on the four-year cycle holding, a premise rival cycles increasingly question.
Long-term holders have stopped adding supply. Whether that proves enough rests on one number, and $76,500 is where the market answers it.
Bitrue