A crushing wave of bad business loans has created a perfect storm for China’s largest banks.The top four banks in the nation posted reductions in profit of at least 10%, and the top 1000 banks saw reductions of 25% on average. The leading cause of the profit reductions is the failure of business loans. Non-performing loans reached 2.7 trillion yuan. This is more than 5% of the total Chinese banking industry, currently valued at 45 trillion yuan.
China’s COVID-19 Crisis CrunchThe banking industry in China came under the greatest pressure during the COVID-19 crisis. As businesses were forced to shutter to protect public health, owners were unable to make good on business loans. However, in an effort to keep the economy afloat, the Chinese government required banks to lend capital, even at high risk. This led to a fiscal crunch between new debt and unpaid debt, resulting in substantial losses. Citigroup analysts, led by Judy Zhang, said,
Under mounting political pressure, China banks not only have had to further cut loan yields to subsidize the real economy, but also need to accelerate counter-cyclical provisioning and adopt more conservative NPL assumptions in setting provisions.In the final analysis, Chinese banks may see a net loss of 25% in 2020, the single greatest reversal in Chinese banking history.
Global Banking TroublesWhile banking stocks around the world may be relatively strong in comparison, the overall sentiment is still downbeat. Many banks, including HSBC and JPMorgan, have suggested the crisis has caused a substantial impact on the banking industry. These reflect a wider concerns that the banking system as a whole, including central banks, may be in for trouble. The stimulus activity of most nations has apparently staved off liquidity crises, but the underlying problems remain. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pivoted to allow for greater inflation and therefore greater liquidity. This has also been coupled with widespread quantitative easing and zero percent benchmark lending rates. Together, the response seeks to push capital into the pockets of the banks, with the anticipation that they’ll have the necessary liquidity to lend to business owners.
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