Bitcoin (BTC) was first released on Jan 3, 2009. It is the first cryptocurrency—and cryptoasset—to successfully use blockchain technology.
The primary purpose of Bitcoin as a means of exchange as yet to be fully realized. It is still often used for trading, investing, and as a store of value.
Since Mar 17, 2019, Bitcoin has been trading within an ascending triangle. This is a bullish pattern and suggests continued price increases for BTC.
In our Mar 20 price analysis of Bitcoin, we predicted that prices will continue to increase along the support line. Volatitlity, however, may be experienced as prices rise and fall within the triangle. However, at a certain point, we believe that BTC will break out of the resistance and experience continued growth
Oh Look, There’s Even More:
- Fundamental Analysis:
- Technical Analysis & Price Predictions
- Bitcoin Price Prediction 2019
- Bitcoin Price Prediction 2020
- Bitcoin Price Prediction 5 Years
Created by a mysterious figure known only by his pseudonym, Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin (BTC) was designed to allow users to store and transfer value without requiring any intermediaries or centralized institutions such as banks.
Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin was initially met with much adulation and has been praised for its potential to compete with VISA as a global payment option. However, several years later, Bitcoin was instead the subject of a great deal of scrutiny as its limited network capacity was made glaringly obvious while transaction fees rose to almost $40 during the December bull run.
This scrutiny was met with the Segregated Witness (SegWit) network upgrade, which activated on August 23, 2017, and greatly improved the capacity of the Bitcoin blockchain and improved its position against competing high-throughput blockchain technologies.
During the bear market, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen less than any other top ten cryptos. Because of this, we at BeInCrypto expect BTC to maintain relative strength in this bear market — reaching a bottom of around $4,000 to close 2018, before seeing a rally back to $6,500 during 2019.Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is one type of cryptoasset. Thus, cryptocurrency is the first, but not the only, type of cryptoasset. Click To Tweet
Bitcoin was one of the first blockchains to implement a second layer scaling solution, with the lightning network. The lightning network was widely regarded to be the second half of the solution to Bitcoin’s scaling issues that were first addressed with SegWit.
Being an open source protocol, anybody with the skills is able to contribute to Bitcoin’s development. Currently, over 350 developers have contributed to the development of Bitcoin — which is far lower than the 10,000 working on Ethereum.
Bitcoin made a low of $60 on Jul 6, 2013. An upward move subsequently took BTC to a high of $1141 on Dec 6, 2013.
After a gradual decrease, the price reached a bottom of $162 on Aug 17, 2015. A long period of price increases followed with a high of $20,000 reached on Dec 17, 2017.
A sharp drop ensued. Price bottomed out at around $3200 about a year later.
Here is the outlook for the price of BTC in the period from Jun 2013 to Mar 2019:
Rate of Increase
The price of BTC on Bitfinex is analyzed at three-day intervals from Jul 2013 to Mar 2019. In order to better visualize large price fluctuations, logarithmic charts are going to be used in this analysis.
The price of BTC reached a high of $1171 on Dec 6, 2013. A drop ensued, and the price made a bottom of $162 on Aug 17, 2015.
The rate of decrease from top to bottom was 85%
The price reached a high of $20,000 on Dec 17, 2017. A rapid price decrease ensued, and the price made a bottom of $3200 on Dec 14, 2018.
Similar to the first correction, the rate of decrease from top to bottom was 85%.
At the bottom, a gradual increase ensued, and price eventually made a high of $20,000 on Dec 17, 2017.
The increase measured from bottom to top amounts to 11400%.
Since the rates of decrease were the same, we are going to operate on the assumption that the increase from the bottom to the next high will also be the same. Therefore, if the new upward move follows a similar pattern to the one in 2015, we are going to have a rate of increase that we can use to predict the next developing pattern.
Even if this assumption is accurate, however, we do not know when the pattern will occur. For this, we must analyze the data thoroughly using time patterns and technical indicators.
In order to figure out where our current position is relative to the 2017 correction, we are going to use the RSI.
The relative strength index (RSI) is an indicator which calculates the size of the changes in price in order to determine oversold or overbought conditions in the market.
In the 2015 correction, the lowest RSI value recorded was 23. This occurred in Jan 14, 2015. In the current correction, the lowest RSI recorded was also 23, which occurred in Nov 20, 2018.
Thus, it appears that in terms of both price movements and the RSI, the current correction is mirroring the pattern developed besides during the 2013 correction.
Based on the movements in the RSI, we believe that the price will make another bottom around $3000 in early September 2019.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2019
From the Dec 6, 2013 high, it took 625 days for the price to bottom out on Aug 17, 2015. If we apply the same timeline to the 2017 correction, the price is predicted to make a bottom near $3000 on Sep 4, 2019. This validates predictions made based on the RSI.
To determine the possible price at the end of 2019, we assess that there are 119 days between Sep 4 and Dec 31, 2019. 119 days after the Aug 17, 2015 bottom, the price of BTC was $460, which is a 58% from the Dec 6, 2013 high.
Applying the same rate to the current correction, we get prices of around $7000 at the end of 2019.
In short, prices should drop to $3000 around September before a subsequently rapid price increase to $7000 by the end of the year.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2020
On Dec 27, 2015, the price was trading at $460. Relative to the 2013 correction, this is the day which corresponds with the price at the end of 2019. Therefore, we use the price on Dec 27, 2015, to make a prediction about the price at the end of 2020.
The price on Dec 27, 2016 was $960. This represents a 15% loss from the high of $1171.
Applying the same rate of loss to the $19891 high, we get prices around $17,000 for the end of 2020. A more specific range would isolate prices to likely between $16,500 and $17,500.
Summary of 2019 and 2020 Price Analysis
There are several similarities between the 2013 and 2017 corrections—namely the degree of price fluctuations, the length of time taken to generate downward movement, and rapid price increases preceding gradual decreases.
The following predictions are made with the assumption that price will follow the pattern laid out in the previous correction and on the time tables we defined:
- A bottom of $3000 for BTC around early September 2019—our prediction suggest Sept 4
- The price will reach $7000 by the end of 2019—and should be trading between $6500 and $7500 as we move into 2020.
- The price will be between $16500 and $17500 in December 2020.
Until these prices are validated, the patterns we define cannot be considered accurate indicators of future prices. Validation of these prices, however, would also validate the accuracy of the pattern we have isolated. At the end of 2019, we will return to these predictions to assess whether the pattern appears to be holding true or not.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 5 Years (Specialist Perspective)
With so much happening in the world of crypto lately, it is no surprise that just about every influencer has their take on the situation.
John Mcafee is Probably Wrong
Last year, practically everybody was bullish — including John McAfee, who predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million by 2020. If it fails to do, McAfee promises he will eat his genitalia:
When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bircoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong. pic.twitter.com/WVx3E71nyD
— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) November 29, 2017
We believe McAfee may have to eat his words—and other things. Currently, our price prediction for Bitcoin at the end of 2020 remains between $16,500 and $17,500. Even using indicators that predict growth far into the long-term, we assess the highest feasible value Bitcoin might reach is around $366 thousand, or around 36.6% of McAfee’s estimate for the end of 2020.
However, while such a range could be reached, it is not likely to be reached by the end of 2020. Prices in the hundreds of thousands of dollars are still attainable—especially as the Lightning Network scales Bitcoin to allow regular transactions with satoshis. This will decrease the overall transaction cost and allow transactions with smaller amounts of currency.
More Accurate But a Bit Inflated
Another prediction comes from Anthony Colón Jr, Founder and CEO of Bitcoin Air, is also bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. He predicted that Bitcoin will reach “$5400-$6000 by years end, with a slow quiet creep to $8000-$9000 over 2019 and a full year of Bull Run for 2020 up to $25,000-$30,000 BTC.”
These predictions are closer to our own, but we believe they are still a bit inflated.
$100 to $100 Thousand?
Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist of the International Money Fund (IMF), is not convinced of increasing prices. In 2018, he predicted that Bitcoin is more likely to reach $100 rather than $100,000. We don’t believe either of these prices will be hit in 2019 or 2020.
However, in the next five years, it is possible that Bitcoin could crash to lows of $100 or less if other cryptoassets are able to display sufficient competitive advantage.
At the same time, while the competitive advantage of pure cryptocurrencies like Litecoin (LTC) might exceed BTC’s market cap in the less immediate future, the adoption of some digital assets may prove beneficial for Bitcoin. For example, the adoption of the Stellar platform does not necessarily mean increases in the price or use or lumens.
Because Stellar’s platform will allow fiat and cryptocurrencies to be sent with very few fees and much faster transaction speeds than BTC can offer on its mainnet. Because BTC can be sent and received on the Stellar platform, it is also the adoption of platforms like this might increase the adoption of BTC and lead to higher prices in the next five years.
In such a case, Stellar could help Bitcoin reach the $100,000 mark in the next five years.
$250,000 by 2022?
Venture capitalist Tim Draper has predicted a $250,000 BTC by 2022. Investing Haven claimed a lower price for Bitcoin by 2022 at $160,000. He has since renounced this prediction. He now predicting that $25,000 could be reached in 2019. There is around three and a half times higher than our current prediction for the end of the year.
Based on the current situation, we at BeInCrypto forecast that it is unlikely that Bitcoin (BTC) will face a gradual downward trend until September 2019. At this time, a bottom near $3000 should be reached with a rapid upward spike leading to prices between $6500 and $7500 at the beginning of 2020.
By the end of 2020, we estimate that Bitcoin will have gained about $10,000 and reach $16,500 to $17,5000 by the end of the year. For the longer term, it is difficult to accurately gauge the possible future long-term value.
Catastrophic crashes are possible—especially as other coins prove their competitive advantage. Bitcoin is still using basic blockchain technology—which is now antiquated—while EOS (EOS), Ethereum (ETH), Tron (TRON), and others have already integrated smart contracts.
Furthermore, there are many other cryptocurrencies using unique privacy features like Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC) in addition to those which use different and possibly more egalitarian consensus algorithms.
In short, Bitcoin has a lot of competition. While the Lightning Network may increase scalability, decrease transaction fees, and create a more efficient network overall, it might not be enough to keep Bitcoin growing.
As new innovations and technologies emerge, Bitcoin begins to feel more and more like an antique. Bitcoin was novel when it was released, but its novelty may fade over time.
However, if the performance of Bitcoin so far is any indicator, prices might increase to over $100,000 within the next five years. It is also possible that this number could be greatly exceeded. However, only time will tell.
What do you think of our BTC price prediction and Bitcoin forecast for 2019? Can Bitcoin remain relevant in the face of a changing industry? Will forks like Bitcoin Cash ever compete for dominance? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
Images courtesy of Shutterstock, CoinMarketCap, TradingView, Twitter.
Disclaimer: The contents of this article are not intended as financial advice, and should not be taken as such. BeInCrypto and the author are not responsible for any financial gains or losses made after reading this article. Readers are always encouraged to do their own research before investing in cryptocurrency, as the market is particularly volatile. Those seeking financial advice should consult with a certified financial professional.