On March 20, the BTC price reached a high of $6,900. Since then, it has been mostly trading in a range between $6,100-$6,900, with the exception of a failed breakdown attempt on March 27. On April 2, the price initiated a rapid upward move and reached a high of $7,192, however, the higher prices could not be sustained and BTC fell back inside this range.
One of the most well-known patterns for this type of movement is the Wyckoff distribution. Well-known trader @CryptoNewton outlined its phases, which very closely resemble the current BTC price movement, especially when taking into account yesterday’s increase. If the pattern persists, the BTC price is expected to decrease below the $6,100 support area.
Shelby (@CryptoNewton) April 2, 2020
If this is indeed a bearish distribution, the price movement has undergone several phases, which are outlined in the image below.
The initial test of the $6,800 resistance area was the ‘buying climax’ while the subsequent downward move towards the support area at $6,100 would be considered an ‘automatic response.’
The main indicators that support this possibility are the two ‘shows of weakness’ below the $6,100 support area, along with the very long upper wick from yesterday, which is likely the ‘upthrust after distribution.’
If the pattern continues to transpire, the BTC price will decrease below the $6,800 area which is now seemingly acting as support, before validating it as resistance and decreasing rapidly. The final validation of the $6,800 area is called the ‘last point of supply,’ and would offer the final price level to exit the trade.
In the longer-term, it is possible that the BTC price is trading inside a descending wedge. This is a bearish reversal pattern that fits with the possibility that it will break down from the wedge and decrease considerably afterward.
If the price reaches a close below the blue dashed line at $6,750 (the main support level when looking at the 6-hour closing prices), the expected movement would be that the price breaks down from the wedge afterward.
To conclude, the BTC price is possibly following a bearish Wyckoff distribution pattern. If it reaches a 4-6 hour close below $6,750, a continued decrease would be likely.